Was at the Greater Dallas HBA luncheon this last week to hear Steve Brown of the Dallas Morning News speak. He drew a good crowd as always. This was my first time to hear him in person, pretty funny guy. Well the meat and potatoes of his presentation was we are headed for a housing shortage which made me smile. Its something I have been saying for over a year now. Yes we still have an 8 month supply of existing homes and yes there is some shadow inventory as well that will enter the market at some point. Its just that you see very little new construction going right now and most of that is custom builds. As new companies continue to relocate here and the companies here continue to grow where are the people going to live?
Mr. Brown predicts a good summer and fall selling season.
This is a large part of the reason we decided to start a spec home about a month back. It should be completed at the end of June and I think the timing will be right. I know my phone has been ringing a bit more lately which is a positive sign.
Will keep you posted.
Good to hear the eternal pessimist Steve Brown has started being more reasonable! The new housing shortage is something we’ve mentioned at least twice before: Newsflash – it’s not all bad! and Housing Economics 101 .
It’s simple math really – for several years, the high-end builders have stopped building homes. Simultaneously, new household formation continues to grow. At some point, you simply run out of new homes. Welcome to econ 101 – supply and demand.
Let’s just hope the builders’ memories are long enough to remember what happened and don’t go crazy. Thankfully I believe the banks will hold them in check this time.